It was 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager admonished him for not reading a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a sign or the reason for Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. When the in-form star swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, opened his arms and roared. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win their opening six games, are somehow just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough query to address. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, while the wins have stacked up.
According to the data, in only two games has the side registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side that have just won 10 in a row, Villa look strangely fragile – but right now the margins are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with rivals and then rely on Rogers to save the day with some crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. Against United, the opponents had more efforts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
A reversion to average could be the greatest opponent Villa have to face as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine the young forward now would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished exactly since it feels so unlikely. When Rogers faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
