A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
